The biggest resistance to a strategy to reduce the impact of the Planning Fallacy is likely to be denial of the selected reference class. This post describes my shield meltdown over references classes.

US weapons system are increasingly late to complete, and exceed projected costs. This post is an introduction to the Planning Fallacy.

The Navy’s schedule and cost estimates for new warships are “accuracy challenged.” This applies to almost all project estimates. This is the first post of a series that seeks to understand why.